Understanding Crude Oil Price Behaviour
This page provides analytical context to complement monthly crude oil price indicators. It highlights how long-term averages, volatility, market regimes, and regional price differentials shape crude oil price behaviour over time.
All statistics shown below are computed directly from monthly price data beginning January 1982.
Long-Term Price Statistics (1982–Present)
| Benchmark | Average | Volatility | Minimum | Maximum | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | 34.8 | 32.5 | 1.2 | 133.9 | 132.7 |
| Dubai | 33.3 | 31.7 | 1.2 | 131.2 | 130.0 |
| WTI | 46.4 | 28.4 | 11.3 | 133.9 | 122.6 |
| Brent–Dubai | 1.5 | 1.6 | -1.5 | 12.2 | 13.8 |
| Brent–WTI | 1.5 | 4.9 | -5.4 | 25.3 | 30.7 |
Long-term averages mask substantial dispersion in crude oil prices. Volatility and range figures highlight the inherently shock-driven nature of oil markets.
Volatility and Market ShocksThe highest sustained volatility in Brent crude prices occurred in April 2009, corresponding to the period following the global financial crisis, when prices collapsed after reaching record highs.
Structural Shifts in Price Regimes
| Period | Average Brent Price ($/bbl) |
|---|---|
| 1982–1999 | 20.5 |
| 2000–2007 | 42.2 |
| 2008–2014 | 95.7 |
| 2015–2019 | 57.2 |
| 2020–Present | 74.2 |
Crude oil prices have transitioned through distinct structural regimes, influenced by demand growth, supply responses, financial crises, and geopolitical developments.
Why Price Differentials MatterBrent–Dubai and Brent–WTI differentials capture regional pricing dynamics. While Brent–Dubai spreads reflect quality and Asian market conditions, Brent–WTI spreads have been strongly influenced by infrastructure, storage, and export constraints in the United States.
Methodology NoteAll statistics are computed using monthly price data from January 1982 onward. Volatility is measured as standard deviation. Regime periods are defined to reflect major structural shifts in oil market behaviour.