Natural Gas Demand Forecasts
Natural gas demand has increased on average by around 80 bcm per year over the last ten years
In the Current Policies scenario (CPS), IEA expects it to increase by around 70 bcm every year to 2035, and by 2035 natural gas overtakes coal to become the second-largest fuel in terms of demand. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to be responsible for nearly all of this growth – their collective needs increase by 700 bcm to 2035 – with demand in advanced economies remaining broadly flat. By 2050, global natural gas demand in the CPS reaches 5 600 bcm, a 30% increase compared with 2024, and emerging market and developing economies account for two-thirds of global demand, up from 55% today
In the Stated Policies scenario (STEPS), IEA expects natural gas demand to grow at an average of 50 bcm per year between 2024 and 2035. Demand reaches just under 4 800 bcm in 2035 and then remains around this level through to 2050. Long-term natural gas demand growth is kept lower than in recent decades by the expanding deployment of renewables, efficiency gains and electrification of end-uses
Demand for natural gas in advanced economies declines from 1 850 bcm in 2024 to 1 750 bcm in 2035. In the European Union, natural gas demand peaked in 2010, and it has fallen by around 20% since Russia`s invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022, to a level of around 330 bcm in 2024. Demand falls by a further 20% between 2024 and 2035, to 260 bcm, as stated policy measures take effect that reduce gas imports and lower the share of gas in the electricity generation mix. Gas demand in Japan peaked in the early 2010s and now stands at around 90 bcm: it falls by 3 bcm by 2035. US domestic gas demand was 940 bcm in 2024 and it levels off before 2035
IEA expects India’s gas demand to increase from ~75 bcm in 2024 to 209 bcm in Current Polices scenario and 187 bcm in Stated Policies scenario. It expects China’s gas demand to increase from 428 bcm in 2024 to 724 bcm and 606 bcm respectively
IEA expects world natural gas production to increase from 4,282 bcm in 2024 to 5,596 bcm by 2050 in Current Policies scenario and 4,645 bcm in Stated Policies scenario, which is 951 bcm lower in the latter
