Karandikars & Associates

Proven Natural Gas Reserves (BCM)

(Data Source: OPEC)

The Society of Petroleum Engineers's (SPE) definition of Reserves: "Reserves are estimated volumes of crude oil, condensate, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and associated substances anticipated to be commercially recoverable from known accumulations from a given date forward, under existing economic conditions, by established operating practices, and under current government regulations. Reserves estimates are based on interpretation of geologic and/or engineering data available at the time of the estimate"

Within that, Proved Reserves are those that can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be recoverable under current economic conditions. Current economic conditions include prices and costs prevailing at the time of the estimate. Proved reserves may be developed or undeveloped. In general, reserves are considered proved if commercial producibility of the reservoir is supported by actual production or formation tests. The term proved refers to the estimated volume of reserve and not just to the productivity of the well or reservoir

Unproved reserves are based on geologic and/or engineering data similar to that used in estimates of proved reserves, but technical, contractual, economic, or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as proved. Estimates of unproved reserves may be made for internal planning or special evaluations, but are not routinely compiled

Unproved reserves are typically sub-classified as probable and possible. Probable reserves are less certain than proved reserves and can be estimated with a degree of certainty sufficient to indicate they are more likely to be recovered than not. Possible reserves are less certain than probable reserves and can be estimated with a low degree of certainty, insufficient to indicate whether they are more likely to be recovered than not

The most commonly encountered reserves terms are 1P (Proven) are the most certain, 2P (Proven plus Probable) include 1P plus a more likely estimate, and 3P (Proven plus Probable plus Possible) include all of the above plus a more speculative, but possible, amount. These terms are used to assess the risk and potential value of a resource project, with 1P used for budgeting, 2P for project sanctioning, and 3P for early-stage exploration where the upside potential is highest

Table below captures trend in country-wise proved natural gas reserve in Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)

For 2024, world proven natural gas reserves were 208,892.2 BCM (209 TCM), India's reserves were 1145.1 BCM (~1.14 TCM), that of China were 2889.8 BCM (~2.9 TCM) while that of US were 17912.3 BCM (~17.9 TCM)

Iran (33,988.0 BCM, or ~34 TCM), Qatar (23,831.0 BCM or ~23.8 TCM), Russia (46,832 BCM or ~ 46.8 TCM) and Turkmenistan (13,900 BCM or ~ 13.9 TCM) are some of the world's largest proven natural gas reserves holders

If we scroll down the above Table, world natural gas reserves were ~19 Trillion Cubic Meters (TCM) in 1960, ~43.5 TCM in 1970, 84.6 TCM in 1980, 128.5 TCM in 1990 and 155.5 TCM in 2000. They crossed the 200 TCM mark for the first time in 2011

If we see the trend graphically, the proved reserves addition has slowed down after reaching the 200 TCM mark

(When we divide BCM numbers by 1000, we get TCM)

Given the reserves of 208,892.2 BCM in 2024 and production of 4,288.6 BCM in the same year, the world Reserves / Production ratio for Natural Gas is ~49 years. The numerator is Proven Reserves

View the trends graphically