Karandikars & Associates

Wind Installed Capacity (GW)

While the wind energy has been used since the ancient times: to propel boats, for grinding grain and for pumping water, however, the first systematic effort to use wind for electricity generation dates back to late 1880s

Wind speed is not constant, and varies widely during a day, a month, a season and a year, hence wind generation is extremely unpredictable

With the increasing commercialization of fossil fuels, a large and a cheap source of energy for uninterrupted power generation, wind based power generation remained a small market for next 100 years

Through a combination of several factors like falling equipment costs, rising fossil fuel costs, appreciation of environmental benefits and strong policy support, Onshore Wind power reached “grid parity”, or the point at which the cost of wind power matches traditional sources, during the first decade of the current century, after which the capacity addition took off across the world

Since wind power is variable, during low wind periods it must be substituted by other power sources. Further, in many geographies, peak wind speeds do not coincide with peak electricity demand, rather the opposite is true. Till now, the conventional hydro as well as pumped hydro, and at many places solar energy, have complimented wind power very well

The rapidly falling energy storage costs are expected to add a new dimension to overcoming intermittency of renewable sources

Wind Power is classified as Onshore and Offshore, depending on whether the wind farms are on land or away from shore. Capacity factors of 25%-35% are most common for Onshore wind farms, while they are typically in the range of 40-50% for Offshore wind farms

Uptil now, the higher capacity factors for Offshore plants have been more than offset by much higher installation costs and transmission costs at most of the offshore locations. Hence the Offshore wind power development pace has been much slower than the Onshore wind power

However, policy support is strong for offshore wind power in many geographies, and is expected to lead to faster offshore installations in the coming years

For 2023, world installed wind capacity was 1,016.7 GW, that of India was 44.7 GW, that of China was 441.9 GW while that of US was 147.4 GW

View the trends graphically

Global wind installed capacity was ~1,135 GW as at end 2024, and likely at ~1,320 GW as at end 2025

Under its various scenarios, IEA expects global wind installed capacity to be 3,561 GW under Current Policies scenario, 3,985 GW under the State Policies scenario and 8,001 GW under the Net Zero emissions scenario.

Starting with an installed capacity of 1,320 GW as at end 2025, we tested our stylised S curve logic using ultimate potential at 4,000 GW (close to the Stated Policy scenario), and giving an input of achieving 50% of the ultimate potential by the year 2035. Under these assumptions, the highest annual capacity addition requirement becomes ~70 GW every year between 2031-2042, before tapering down. This is lower than what was actually achieved in 2024/25, but this is to be expected, as S curve "smoothens" the overall profile, and there would be year-to-year real-life variations in capacity installations

If we take ultimate potential at 8,000 GW and achievement of 50% of this by 2040, the highest annual capacity addition requirement is 231 GW in 2040

Users can input their own assumptions and see the capacity development profile as also annual capacity additions, and assess the reasonableness of the S-Curve logic

Click here to visit Input Page