SBI Research: India set to transition to Upper Middle-Income Country by 2030
(Read our detailed coverage of World Bank Income Classification)
19th January 2026
India is projected to become an upper-middle income country by 2030 and the third largest economy by 2028, according to an SBI Research report
This is a very insightful Report, we pick up the Executive Summary (Source: SBI Research Issue # 35, FY26 Date: 19-Jan-2026)
World Bank classification of countries based on GNI per capita shows increase in number of high income and upper middleincome countries between 1990-2024
Analysis of 48 low- and middle-income countries in 1990 which have performed well and transitioned to higher income category shows that Guyana has been the best performer with transition made from low-income country in 1990 to high income country in 2024 and corresponding per capita GNI increasing more than 51 times during the period (from $390 to $20,140)
China which had $330 per capita GNI in 1990 (a low-income country) and it is now an upper middle-income country in 2024. Even Indonesia has transitioned from low-income country to upper middle-income country during the period
India took 60 years to transition to lower-middle income in 2007 from low-income country.. Its per capita GNI increased from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007, a CAGR of 5.3%. India also achieved $1 trillion in 60 years
India took 60 years since independence to reach $1 trillion …India achieved $2 trillion / another 7 years in 2014…India achieved $3 trillion in another 7 years in 2021…India achieved $4 trillion in another 4 years in 2025…India likely to achieve $5 trillion in another ~ 2 years.. India achieved $1000 per capita income in 62 years since independence in 2009…India achieved $2000 per capita / another 10 years in 2019.. India to achieve $3000 per capita in another 7 years in 2026..India set to touch $4000 per capita in another 4 years in 2030 to transition to an Upper Middle Income country and join China and Indonesia at current classification
India’s growth journey in the last decade shows that India’s percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has increased from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year horizon to the 95th percentile implying a rightward shift in its relative position that places India deeper into the upper tail of the global growth distribution
If we consider the current per capita GNI threshold for high income country of $13,936 to be reached by 2047 (as per Viksit Bharat vision), India’s per capita GNI has to grow by a CAGR of 7.5%. This seems achievable as India’s per capita GNI has grown by a CAGR of 8.3% during the last 23 years (2001-2024)
However, the threshold level for high income country will also get changed by then. If the threshold for high income country gets changed to $18,000 then India’s per capita GNI needs to grow by a higher rate, CAGR of around 8.9% in the next 23 years for it to become the high-income country by 2047….Assuming 0.6% average population growth and average deflator of China, Japan, UK, USA and Euro area of around 2% (average between 1992-2024), this translates into growth of nominal GDP in dollar terms of around 11.5% for the next 23 years. India should continue its reform agenda so that we can get higher incremental growth required to reach the high-income bracket
Clearly, India can and will transition to the upper middle-income country, which has the threshold per capita GNI of around $4500..Growth of Nominal GDP in dollar terms required to achieve this is around 11.5% which is achievable as this growth has been around 11% before the pandemic (FY04-FY20) and around 10% during FY04-FY25