FOB Deltas w.r.t. Marker Crudes under alternative scenarios
The table below presents assessed crude FOB differentials to their respective marker crudes under a set of structured alternative market scenarios
The purpose is not to forecast price levels, but to illustrate how relative crude valuations adjust under changing assumptions, and to demonstrate the internal consistency and flexibility of the modelling framework
Nonetheless, readers can readily observe how FOB differentials of heavier crudes to their respective marker benchmarks respond strongly to Strength or Weakness in Fuel Oil cracks
Similarly, differentials of lighter crudes and condensates tend to be more sensitive to movements in Naphtha cracks
| Crude | Marker | Base | Strong Diesel | Weak Diesel | Strong Naphtha | Weak Naphtha | Strong HSFO | Weak HSFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N_Africa_1 | Brent | +1.20 | +1.30 | +1.14 | +1.96 | +0.83 | +0.69 | +1.46 |
| W_Africa_1 | Brent | -2.44 | -2.32 | -2.51 | -4.05 | -1.64 | -1.33 | -3.00 |
| W_Africa_2 | Brent | -1.07 | -0.85 | -1.20 | -2.34 | -0.44 | -0.47 | -1.37 |
| FSU_1 | Brent | +1.86 | +2.29 | +1.59 | +0.81 | +2.38 | +1.76 | +1.91 |
| LA_1 | Brent | -5.07 | -5.66 | -4.72 | -6.67 | -4.27 | -2.73 | -6.24 |
| SEA_1 | Brent | +4.22 | +4.78 | +3.88 | +4.52 | +4.06 | +3.05 | +4.80 |
| NA_1 | WTI | -12.74 | -13.12 | -12.51 | -14.51 | -11.86 | -10.51 | -13.86 |
| FSU_2 | Brent | +1.36 | +1.52 | +1.27 | +1.99 | +1.05 | +0.61 | +1.74 |
| FSU_3 | Brent | -2.55 | -2.51 | -2.58 | -3.59 | -2.03 | -1.87 | -2.89 |
| ME_1 | (O+D)/2 | -6.42 | -7.32 | -5.89 | -6.57 | -6.35 | -4.45 | -7.41 |
| ME_2 | (O+D)/2 | -1.62 | -1.90 | -1.46 | -1.45 | -1.71 | -1.15 | -1.86 |
| N_Africa_2 | Brent | +2.01 | +2.25 | +1.87 | +2.39 | +1.82 | +1.37 | +2.33 |
| N_Africa_3 | Brent | -1.23 | -1.17 | -1.26 | -1.80 | -0.94 | -0.91 | -1.39 |
| SEA_2 | Brent | +4.58 | +5.71 | +3.91 | +3.55 | +5.10 | +3.58 | +5.08 |
| SEA_3 | Brent | +3.60 | +4.08 | +3.32 | +3.58 | +3.61 | +2.71 | +4.05 |
| LA_2 | Brent | -9.17 | -10.09 | -8.61 | -10.42 | -8.54 | -6.29 | -10.61 |
| W_Africa_3 | Brent | +2.15 | +2.78 | +1.77 | +1.45 | +2.49 | +1.55 | +2.45 |
| W_Africa_4 | Brent | +3.21 | +4.58 | +2.38 | +1.31 | +4.15 | +2.50 | +3.56 |
| NW_1 | Brent | -2.93 | -2.78 | -3.02 | -4.70 | -2.05 | -1.77 | -3.52 |
| ME_3 | (O+D)/2 | +3.37 | +3.63 | +3.22 | +4.18 | +2.97 | +2.27 | +3.92 |
| ME_4 | (O+D)/2 | +1.04 | +1.17 | +0.97 | +1.13 | +1.00 | +0.73 | +1.20 |
| ME_5 | (O+D)/2 | +5.48 | +5.69 | +5.36 | +7.27 | +4.59 | +3.67 | +6.39 |
| ME_6 | (O+D)/2 | -3.47 | -3.92 | -3.21 | -3.52 | -3.45 | -2.42 | -4.00 |
| ME_7 | (O+D)/2 | -1.81 | -2.11 | -1.62 | -1.54 | -1.94 | -1.32 | -2.05 |
| ME_8 | (O+D)/2 | +5.86 | +5.83 | +5.88 | +8.65 | +4.47 | +3.86 | +6.86 |
| ME_9 | (O+D)/2 | +4.09 | +4.37 | +3.92 | +5.01 | +3.63 | +2.73 | +4.77 |
| NW_2 | Brent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NW_3 | Brent | -4.47 | -4.50 | -4.45 | -6.48 | -3.46 | -2.87 | -5.27 |
| NA_2 | WTI | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| LA_3 | Brent | -11.25 | -12.13 | -10.73 | -13.13 | -10.32 | -7.99 | -12.88 |