Upstream Oil & Gas
Crude oil markets are characterised by a wide diversity of crude streams, varying significantly in quality, composition, and processing behaviour. While crudes are often broadly classified as light/sweet or heavy/sour, such labels are insufficient for assessing their true suitability for specific refinery configurations
The analytical focus in this area is on systematically assessing the processing affinity of different crude oils to a given refinery configuration, based on detailed crude characteristics rather than headline classifications.
The approach is grounded in:
Detailed crude assay properties
Processing unit constraints and yields
Product slate implications under given refinery configurations
Using a stylised linear programming framework, representative crude oils can be evaluated against a standardised refinery configuration to understand relative processing suitability and value contribution.
The emphasis in this illustrative demo is on demonstrating the underlying analytical logic and modelling methodology, rather than on exhaustive coverage of all global crude oils
The same framework can be extended, where required, to incorporate client-specific crude assays and refinery data, enabling tailored assessments without reliance on proprietary third-party datasets
As part of our internal validation process, the analytical framework has been independently tested in two complementary modes —
- evaluating a single crude across multiple refinery configurations, and
- evaluating multiple crudes within a single refinery configuration
This bidirectional validation reinforces the structural integrity and reliability of the underlying optimisation framework
Illustrative explorations
Presented below are three illustrative applications of this framework. The first outlines a methodology for assessing price differentials of various crude oils relative to their respective marker crudes. The second demonstrates how these differentials evolve under alternative market scenarios. The third illustrates, using default assumptions, a framework for evaluating indifference values of representative crudes across different refinery configurations
Crude Oil Price Differentials – Methodology
Crude Oil Price Differentials – Scenario Analysis
Crude Indifference Values – across Refinery Configurations
As the demonstration uses standardised refinery configurations and fixed "forced" crude quantity for indifferenece valuation, certain crude results may reflect configuration sensitivity rather than intrinsic crude quality. In commercial deployments, refinery-specific configurations are explicitly modelled to ensure consistent and context-appropriate crude evaluation
Click below to visit the section on refinery-wise indifference values for all representative crudes for a selected refinery configuration:
Refinery-wise Crude Indifference Values
Our commercial implementation integrates complementary analytical modules that assess refinery-wise indifference values across crude slates and crude-wise indifference values across refinery configurations
By comparing the relative positioning of both refineries and crudes within a consistent analytical framework, the approach provides a structured view of crude sourcing strategy, competitiveness, and optionality
Independent Strategic Advisory
We undertake structured, client-specific project assessments drawing on the analytical frameworks outlined above.
To initiate a discussion, please submit a brief outline via the Advisory Inquiry Form.