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India Population Forecasts UNWP
In the 2024 revision of the UN World Population Prospects, the future population of each country was projected beginning from 1 January 2024. To project the population forward until 2101, various assumptions were made regarding future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. Probabilistic methods were used to project future fertility and mortality levels and international migration, specifically to derive the trajectories of the total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth for each sex, and total net migration rates and counts
In addition, several different projection scenarios were produced to convey the sensitivity of the projections to changes in the underlying assumptions
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For the Golden year 2047, the 100th anniversary of India's independence, the population forecasts vary from a low of 1,552.3 million under the Low Variant scenario, to a high of 1,781.3 million under the High Variant scenario, or a difference of 229 million between the two scenarios
| Year | Medium Variant million | High Variant million | Low Variant million | Constant Fertility million | Instant Replacement million | Instant Replacement Zero Migration million | Momentum million | Zero Migration million | No Change million | No Fertility below 18 million | Accelerated ABR Decline million | Accelerated ABR Decline recup million |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2100 | 1505.3 | 2196.9 | 991.3 | 1760.3 | 1959.2 | 2031.6 | 1796.2 | 1566.6 | 1480.1 | 1503.1 | 1504.0 | 1504.6 |
| 2090 | 1580.3 | 2130.1 | 1145.7 | 1780.8 | 1942.4 | 2002.4 | 1797.5 | 1632.4 | 1538.0 | 1578.4 | 1579.1 | 1579.6 |
| 2080 | 1645.5 | 2069.7 | 1290.2 | 1795.4 | 1924.2 | 1972.0 | 1803.5 | 1688.0 | 1597.4 | 1643.9 | 1644.5 | 1645.0 |
| 2070 | 1689.2 | 2005.1 | 1411.9 | 1796.1 | 1896.6 | 1932.8 | 1806.9 | 1722.0 | 1649.4 | 1687.7 | 1688.3 | 1688.7 |
| 2060 | 1701.0 | 1913.7 | 1502.1 | 1770.6 | 1841.8 | 1867.5 | 1785.1 | 1724.8 | 1675.2 | 1699.7 | 1700.1 | 1700.4 |
| 2050 | 1679.6 | 1812.4 | 1548.0 | 1719.3 | 1766.2 | 1783.2 | 1737.8 | 1695.7 | 1666.6 | 1678.7 | 1679.0 | 1679.2 |
| 2049 | 1675.6 | 1802.2 | 1549.9 | 1712.9 | 1758.0 | 1774.2 | 1731.9 | 1691.0 | 1663.9 | 1674.8 | 1675.0 | 1675.3 |
| 2048 | 1671.3 | 1791.8 | 1551.3 | 1706.3 | 1749.6 | 1765.1 | 1725.8 | 1685.9 | 1660.8 | 1670.5 | 1670.8 | 1671.0 |
| 2047 | 1666.6 | 1781.3 | 1552.3 | 1699.4 | 1741.0 | 1755.7 | 1719.4 | 1680.5 | 1657.2 | 1665.8 | 1666.1 | 1666.3 |
| 2046 | 1661.5 | 1770.5 | 1552.8 | 1692.2 | 1732.2 | 1746.1 | 1712.6 | 1674.8 | 1653.3 | 1660.8 | 1661.0 | 1661.3 |
| 2045 | 1656.1 | 1759.3 | 1552.9 | 1684.7 | 1723.1 | 1736.3 | 1705.4 | 1668.6 | 1648.9 | 1655.3 | 1655.5 | 1655.8 |
| 2044 | 1650.2 | 1747.9 | 1552.5 | 1676.9 | 1713.7 | 1726.1 | 1697.8 | 1662.0 | 1644.1 | 1649.4 | 1649.7 | 1649.9 |
| 2043 | 1643.9 | 1736.1 | 1551.8 | 1668.7 | 1703.9 | 1715.6 | 1689.8 | 1655.1 | 1638.8 | 1643.2 | 1643.4 | 1643.7 |
| 2042 | 1637.2 | 1723.8 | 1550.7 | 1660.1 | 1693.7 | 1704.7 | 1681.3 | 1647.7 | 1633.0 | 1636.5 | 1636.7 | 1637.0 |
| 2041 | 1630.1 | 1711.1 | 1549.2 | 1651.2 | 1683.1 | 1693.4 | 1672.2 | 1639.9 | 1626.6 | 1629.4 | 1629.6 | 1629.9 |
| 2040 | 1622.6 | 1697.9 | 1547.2 | 1641.8 | 1672.2 | 1681.7 | 1662.7 | 1631.7 | 1619.8 | 1621.9 | 1622.1 | 1622.3 |
| 2039 | 1614.6 | 1684.3 | 1545.0 | 1632.1 | 1660.8 | 1669.6 | 1652.7 | 1623.1 | 1612.5 | 1614.0 | 1614.1 | 1614.4 |
| 2038 | 1606.3 | 1670.3 | 1542.3 | 1622.0 | 1649.1 | 1657.2 | 1642.1 | 1614.2 | 1604.6 | 1605.7 | 1605.8 | 1606.0 |
| 2037 | 1597.5 | 1655.8 | 1539.3 | 1611.5 | 1636.9 | 1644.4 | 1631.1 | 1604.8 | 1596.3 | 1596.9 | 1597.0 | 1597.3 |
| 2036 | 1588.3 | 1640.8 | 1535.9 | 1600.7 | 1624.4 | 1631.2 | 1619.6 | 1594.9 | 1587.4 | 1587.7 | 1587.8 | 1588.0 |
| 2035 | 1578.7 | 1625.4 | 1532.0 | 1589.5 | 1611.5 | 1617.7 | 1607.7 | 1584.7 | 1578.1 | 1578.1 | 1578.2 | 1578.3 |
| 2034 | 1568.7 | 1609.6 | 1527.8 | 1578.0 | 1598.3 | 1603.9 | 1595.3 | 1574.1 | 1568.4 | 1568.1 | 1568.2 | 1568.2 |
| 2033 | 1558.3 | 1593.9 | 1522.7 | 1566.3 | 1584.7 | 1589.7 | 1582.5 | 1563.2 | 1558.2 | 1557.8 | 1557.8 | 1557.8 |
| 2032 | 1547.6 | 1578.5 | 1516.7 | 1554.2 | 1570.9 | 1575.3 | 1569.3 | 1552.0 | 1547.6 | 1547.1 | 1547.1 | 1547.1 |
| 2031 | 1536.5 | 1562.8 | 1510.3 | 1541.9 | 1556.7 | 1560.6 | 1555.8 | 1540.4 | 1536.6 | 1536.1 | 1536.0 | 1536.0 |
| 2030 | 1525.1 | 1546.7 | 1503.6 | 1529.4 | 1542.4 | 1545.7 | 1541.9 | 1528.4 | 1525.2 | 1524.7 | 1524.6 | 1524.6 |
| 2029 | 1513.4 | 1530.3 | 1496.5 | 1516.6 | 1527.7 | 1530.6 | 1527.6 | 1516.2 | 1513.5 | 1513.1 | 1512.9 | 1512.9 |
| 2028 | 1501.4 | 1514.5 | 1488.4 | 1503.7 | 1512.9 | 1515.3 | 1513.1 | 1503.8 | 1501.5 | 1501.1 | 1500.9 | 1500.9 |
| 2027 | 1489.2 | 1499.3 | 1479.0 | 1490.6 | 1497.9 | 1499.8 | 1498.2 | 1491.0 | 1489.1 | 1488.9 | 1488.7 | 1488.7 |
| 2026 | 1476.6 | 1483.9 | 1469.4 | 1477.5 | 1482.7 | 1484.1 | 1483.1 | 1478.0 | 1476.6 | 1476.4 | 1476.3 | 1476.3 |
| 2025 | 1463.9 | 1468.2 | 1459.5 | 1464.2 | 1467.4 | 1468.3 | 1467.8 | 1464.8 | 1463.8 | 1463.7 | 1463.7 | 1463.7 |
| 2024 | 1450.9 | 1452.4 | 1449.5 | 1451.0 | 1452.1 | 1452.4 | 1452.3 | 1451.3 | 1450.9 | 1450.9 | 1450.9 | 1450.9 |
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For the year 2100, the last in the forecast period, India's population forecasts vary from a low of 991.3 million under the Low Variant scenario, to a high of 2,196.9 million under the High Variant scenario, or a difference of a whopping 1,205.6 million
This difference clearly brings out the kind of uncertainties that are involved in making long-range population forecasts
View the trends graphically