Year by which 2.1 TFR Achieved / Will be Achieved
(Source: Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, July 2020)
In order to provide population projections which can be used by the National Commission on Population, NITI AAYOG and various other stakeholders Technical Group on Population Projections (TGPP) for the period 2011-2035 was constituted
One of the terms of reference was:
"To prepare projections of the possible period when the population replacement level TFR 2.1 will be reached by States/UTs and the country as a whole. The Group may project reversal of the trend/continuation of trend of TFR in the States where it is below or at replacement level of 2.1"
SRS (Sample Registration System) and NFHS (National Family Health Survey) provide estimates of TFR for States of the country.
The Technical Group used the SRS data as base level estimates, these being available as a time series. The SRS data shows that in most of the States, the level of total fertility has been falling since 1971. The trend analysis of TFR in terms of Exponential, Log linear, logistic and Gompertz model was used for projecting the future levels of TFR in all the States as well as for the country as a whole
Table below shows the Group's assessment of the probable year by which replacement level of fertility will be achieved by selected states, under the assumption that the recent pace of decline in TFRs (observed during 1991-2017) continues in the future years also
It can be noted that many states in India have already achieved TFR of 2.1, and India (weighted) achieved the same in 2019
