Karandikars & Associates

S-Curve for Capacity Addition

1. Several real-world developments are known to follow a "S Curve" profile, namely a slow growth at the beginning, rapid growth in the middle, reaching a mid-point of ultimate potential, followed by slowing growth and tapering to the ultimate potential
2. In this section, K&A have used their stylized S curve formula to help assess the readers what would be capacity development profile
3. The S Curve profile needs three inputs, actual development at the start year, the ultimate development potential, and year in which mid point of the development potential is reached
4. Our default values are for Indian solar development profile with start year as 2026, installed capacity of 125 GW by end 2025, ultimate potential of 750 GW, and year in which mid-point of this ultimate potential is achieved, to be 2035. Users are free to choose any value for these inputs
5. To avoid the unintended year-selection errors and resultant erroneous results, we have considered minimum difference between year of reaching mid-point potential and start year as 10 years, by automatically modifying the user input, if required
6. Likewise, we have kept ultimate potential at minimum 3 times installed capacity at start, by automatically modifying the user input , if required

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User Inputs

(Users can change any of the inputs below and submit)

Start Year:

Installed Capacity at Start (GW):

Ultimate Potential (GW):

50% of Potential achieved year: